TWIA Commercial Property & Casualty
Planning activity jumps ahead of Fed meeting
Sep
Dive Brief:
- The Dodge Momentum Index, a benchmark that measures nonresidential construction planning, increased 2.9% in August due to broad-based growth in both commercial and institutional sectors, according to Dodge Construction Network.
- Commercial planning, such as office, industrial and hotel projects, jumped 1.9% in August, while institutional planning, which includes education, life sciences and healthcare projects, surged 5.7% over the month.
- “With the Fed’s September rate cut all but finalized, the influence of selective lending standards and inflation should moderate next year, alongside a modest upgrade to consumer demand,” said Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “As a result, stronger planning activity was widespread in August, with most nonresidential sectors seeing growth.”
Dive Insight:
Ahead of next year’s anticipated stronger market conditions, owners and developers continued to prime the planning queue in August, said Martin.
For example, hotel and retail planning have been steadily expanding over the past few months, while data center projects continued to dominate overall planning activity. Martin noted, however, that these increases had moderated after several months of very strong growth.
Even warehouse projects, after slowing down in recent years, posted positive momentum over the last three months, according to Dodge. On the institutional side, healthcare project planning drove the sector’s growth in August, said Martin.
From an annual perspective, the DMI soared 31% higher than in August 2023, according to the report. The commercial segment increased 42% from year-ago levels, while the institutional segment jumped 8% over the same period.
A total of 30 projects valued at $100 million or more entered planning during August. The largest commercial sector projects included:
- The $500 million portion of the Tract data center complex in Yuma, Arizona.
- The $462 million KDC data center campus in Irving, Texas.
The largest institutional projects to enter planning included:
- The $440 million Geisinger medical center tower in Danville, Pennsylvania.
- The $240 million academic and research facility at the University of Cincinnati in Ohio.
Nevertheless, conditions at architecture firms remain sluggish. The Architectural Billings Index, an indicator of construction work nine to 12 months out, posted a decline in billings for the eighteenth consecutive month, according to the latest data from the American Institute of Architects.
A silver lining is emerging, however, as fewer firms reported declining billings in July compared to May. Despite this, more than half of firms are still experiencing soft business conditions, according to the report.
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